Home wararka Dalka Akhriso Go.anka Bangiga Dhexe ee Dalka Mareykanka oo ka hadlay Lacagta Dulsaarka...

Akhriso Go.anka Bangiga Dhexe ee Dalka Mareykanka oo ka hadlay Lacagta Dulsaarka ee Deymaha..

0
SHARE

Guddiga Suuq Furan ee Federaalka (Federal Open Market Committee), oo ah guddiga maamula Siyaasadda Lacagta (Monetary Policy) ee Ameerika, ayaa 1-dii Agoosto 2018, 9:00 PM waqtiga Mogadishu (18:00 GMT) go’aamiyay in aan wax laga badelin dulsaarka deynta maalinlaha ah ee loo yaqaan “Fed Funds Rate” ama “Federal Funds Target Rate” oo hadda ah 1.75% ilaa 2.0%.

 

Waxa aan qoraalkaan uga hadlayaa dulsaarkaan caanka ah waxa uu yahay, sida bangiyadu u isticmaalaan, iyo saamaynta maaliyadeed iyo dhaqaale ee uu leeyahay.

 

Waa Maxay Dulsaarka FFR (Fed Funds Rate)?

 

Sida uu qabo qaanuunka Bangiyada Dhexe ee Adduunka, waxaa ku waajiba bangiyada ganacsiga iyo kaydka (Commercial and Savings Banks) iyo Hay’adaha kale ee Maaliyadeed (other Financial Institutions) ee macaamiisha u fura xisaabta kaydka (deposit/saving accounts) waxa loo yaqaan Saamiga Shuruudda Kaydka (Reserve Requirement Ratio or Cash Reserve Ratio) oo ah boqolkiiba in cayiman.

 

Tusaale ahaan, waddanka Hindiya Saamiga Shuruudda Kaydku waa 4%; Ameerika waa 10%; Shiinaha waa 15.50%; EU waa 1%; Somalia, Australia iyo UK waa 0%; Brazil waa 20%; Japan waa 0.78%; Lebanon waa 30%. Waxay ku xiran tahay siyaasadda maaliyadeed iyo dhaqaale ee Bangiga Dhexe iyo heerka sicir bararka, koboca dhaqaale, iyo shaqo la’aanta.

 

Haddii Bangi USA uu ka qabto macaamiishiisa $100 malyan (total customer deposits), waxaa laga rabaa Bangi USA in uu kayd ahaan u haysto $10 malyan (10% x $100 malyan) oo lacag cad ah. Baaqiga ah $90 malyan, wuxuu Bangi USA daymin karaa macaamiishiisa. Tobanka malyan ee ah shuruudda kaydka waxaa la yiraahdaa “Fed Funds” waxaana la dhigaa bangiga dhexe (ama khasnadda bangi USA). Ujeedadu waa in aysan bangiyadu ku taraxtagin deyn bixinta oo la hubiyaa in ay lacag u haystaan lacag ku filan howl maalmeedka bangiga.

Bangiyada Ganacsiga iyo Kaydka (Commercial and Savings Banks) oo aysan u oolin bangiga dhexe lacag ku filan si ay u kaafiyaan Saamiga Shuruudda Kaydka (Reserve Requirement Ratio) ee ku waajibtay, waa in ay deyn ka qaataan bangiyada kale ee bangiga dhexe ay utaalo lacag dheeraad ah. Dulsaarka lacagta kaydka ah ee bangiyada u taala bangiga dhexe oo Bangiyada Ganacsiga iyo Hay’adaha Maaliyadda ay kala deynsadaan ayaa la yiraahdaa Dulsaarka FFR (ama Fed Funds Rate). Kala deynsashada kaydka bangiyada u yaala bangiga dhexe waa mid muddo gaaban (Short-term loan) oo hal maalin ama habeen ah (Overnight loan).

 

Ahmiyadda Dulsaarka FFR:

 

Bangiga Dhexe ee Ameerika (The Federal Reserve), oo masuul ka ah Siyaasadda Lacagta ee Ameerika, ayaa u isticmaala dulsaarka FFR xakameynta (Contractionary monetary policy) ama kordhinta (Expansionary monetary policy) lacagta cadaanka ah ee ku jirta suuqa (liquidity), awoodda deyn bixin ee bangiyada Ameerika, iyo kobaca dhaqaalaha Ameerika (iyo kan adduunkaba).

 

Tusaale ahaan, haddii bangiga dhexe uu rabo in uu xakameeyo sicir bararka (Inflation), wuxuu kordhinaa Saamiga Shuruudda Kaydka (it raises the reserve requirement ratio); haddii uu rabo in uu fududeeyo kororsiima dhaqaale (Economic Growth) iyo in uu hoos u dhigo heerka shaqo la’aanta (unemployment rate), hoos ayuu u dhigaa Saamiga Shuruudda Kaydka (ama sida ay markaas tahay ayuu u dhaafaa).

 

Waxaa xusid mudan in Bangiga Dhexe ee Ameerika uu kordhiyay heerka Shuruudda Kaydka shan jeer sidii uu Donald Trump uu u noqday madaxweynaha Ameerika bishii Janaayo 2017-kii.

 

Waxaana la filaa in la kordhiyo markale bisha September 2018-ka. Wax soo saarka guud ee Ameerika (GDP) wuxuu noqday 4.1% xilligi 2-aad (Abriil ilaa Juunyo) ee 2018-ka.

 

 

 

Dulsaarka FFR wuxuu sal u yahay dulsaarka deymaha kale oo dhan sida daynta bilaha ah, 3-bilaha ah, 6-bilaha ah ama sanad-laha ah ee ay kala qaataan bangiyadu ee loo yaqaan London Interbank Offering Rate ama LIBOR (ha ilaawin in deynta dulsaarka FFR ay tahay hal maalin oo kaliya). Waxaa kale oo Dulsaarka FFR uu sal yahay deynta ay bangiyadu bixiyaan oo dhan (e.g. mortgage loans, credit cards debt) iyo dulsaarka ay macaamiishu ka helaan kaydka xisaabtooda (deposits/savings).

 

Saamaynta Dhaqaale ee Isbadelka Dulsaarka FFR:

 

Kor ama hoos u dhigista dulsaarka FFR waxay saamaysaa awoodda wax gadasho ee dadweynaha Ameerika (oo aad u isticmaala credit cards ka oo deyn ahaan wax lagu iibsado), bixinta deynta guryaha, iyo maalgalinta shirkadaha. Waxaa kale oo ay saamaynee lacag dhigashada iyo kharaj bixinta (Savings behaviour) dadweynaha. Arrimahaas oo dhan waxay ugu dambayn saameeyaan kororsiimaha dhaqaalaha Ameerika iyo adduunka intiisa kale.

 

Ameerika waa suuqa iyo dhaqaalaha ugu weyn adduunka ee wax loo dhoofsho. Dhaqaalaha Ameerika waa $19.42 trillion ama 25% dhaqaalaha adduunka oo la iskudaray. Haddii Dulsaarka FFR uu isbadelo, dulsaarka bangiyada dhexe ee adduunka sida BOE, BOJ, ECB, RBI, PBC, iyo bangiyada ganacsiga waa isbadelaayaan.

 

Waxaa durba hoos u dhacay qiimaha Doolarka Ameerika. Wax ka badelid la’aanta dulsaarka FFR saamayn badan kuma yeelan suuqyada saamiyada waayoo waa la filaayay (war la qabo xiisa ma leh). Waxaa suuqyada saamiga hadda saamayn mug leh ku leh dagaalka ganacsiga ee u dhaxeeya Ameerika iyo Shiinaha iyo faa’iidada shirkadaha (EU iyo Ameerika waxay isku afgarteen in ay wadahadlaan oo la qaboojiyo dagaalka ganacsiga).

 

Guud ahaan, dulsaarka FFR oo isbadelo iyo dulsaaryada kale ee uu salka u yahay ee dabajooga waxay saamaynee kharajka nolosha ee dadka adduunka oo dhan sababtuna waa sarifka doolarka iyo lacagaha kale oo isbadalaa. Haddii sarifka Doolarku isbadelo, waxaa isbadelaa qiimaha badeecada iyo adeegga dadweynaha. Waxaa kale oo jira in dadka badankiis ay yihiin deyn ku nool.

 

Xaaladda Maaliyadeed (Financial Condition) ee dadweynaha waxaa tilmaama laba xog (Statistic) oo kala ah: (1) In ay yihiin deyn qabayaal ama deyn bixiyaal (net borrowers ama net lenders), iyo (2) Saamiga Lacag Dhigasho (Savings / Disposal income).

 

Dadka jooga Waqooyiga Ameerika iyo Yurub badankoodu waa deyn qabayaal (net borrowers). Marka isbadel ku yimaada dulsaarka deynta wuxuu ku adkaynaa bixinta deynta ku taagan (gaar ahaan deynta leh dulsaarka isbadela ama Adjustable Interest rate), qaadashada mid hor leh (Refinancing), iyo kharajka adeegga nolol maalmeedka.

 

Allahu Yaclam.

 

Dr. Ismail Ali Siad Faculty of Postgraduate Studies, MBA Program University of Somalia (Brighter Future), www.uniso.edu.so vc@uniso.edu.so; pgc@uniso.edu.so

Loading...

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here